India-Pakistan Conflict

India-Pakistan Conflict: Military Escalation, Retaliation, and Ceasefire Breakdown

Introduction

The recent India-Pakistan military confrontation has once again placed the two nuclear-armed neighbours on the brink of a full-scale war. Sparked by a terror attack in Pahalgam, India launched Operation Sindoor, leading to Pakistan’s retaliation and resulting in a tense ceasefire agreement. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the accusations, military actions, economic retaliation, and global implications of this crisis.

The Pahalgam Terror Attack and India’s Accusations

The India-Pakistan conflict began with a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, which resulted in the loss of multiple Indian security personnel and civilians. India immediately blamed Pakistan, alleging that the attackers were linked to Pakistan-based militant organisations such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

Indian intelligence agencies claimed that the attackers had received:

• Advanced combat training in Pakistani facilities.
• Logistical support from Pakistan’s intelligence agencies.
• Financial assistance via underground networks linked to Islamabad.

Furthermore, India accused Pakistan of:

• Violating the 2003 ceasefire agreement by actively supporting militant infiltration.
• Deploying drones into Indian territory for surveillance and arms delivery.
• Escalating hybrid warfare through intelligence-backed insurgency efforts in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan strongly denied the allegations, labelling them fabricated and politically motivated. According to Islamabad, India was using the attack as a pretext to escalate military actions against Pakistan, ignoring internal security failures that might have contributed to the incident.

India’s Operation Sindoor: Aerial Strikes on Pakistan

In response to the Pahalgam attack, India launched Operation Sindoor, a large-scale military airstrike campaign against alleged militant hideouts inside Pakistan. The operation included:

• Precision air raids using fighter jets targeting nine militant sites.
• Use of advanced missiles aimed at eliminating high-value targets.
• Cross-border artillery fire resulted in extensive damage.

According to Indian defence officials, the strikes neutralised key terrorist infrastructure, significantly weakening militant networks operating within Pakistan. However, Pakistan condemned the violation of its sovereignty, calling India’s action “a direct act of aggression.”

Pakistan’s Military Retaliation: Missile Strikes and Aerial Engagements

Pakistan responded swiftly to India’s aerial operations by launching a coordinated missile attack on Indian airbases. The Pakistani military claimed that its strikes:

• Targeted key Indian military installations near the Line of Control (LoC).
• Destroyed fuel and ammunition depots, disrupting India’s operational capabilities.
• Damaged Indian aircraft shelters, affecting air force readiness.

Additionally, reports indicated that Pakistan Air Force drones infiltrated Indian airspace, particularly in Akhnoor and Rajouri, worsening the situation. These drones were suspected of conducting surveillance missions, gathering intelligence for potential future strikes.

Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: India’s Economic Retaliation

Amidst military tensions, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a 60-year-old agreement governing water distribution between the two nations. This move threatened to create a severe water crisis in Pakistan, as nearly 80% of its agriculture depends on the Indus River system.

Key Consequences of India’s Decision

• Pakistan’s Kharif crop season faces a 21% water shortage, affecting food security.
• The Baglihar Dam’s gate closure by India limits water flow into Pakistan.
• Islamabad considers India’s decision an act of economic warfare, escalating tensions.
• Pakistan has approached the World Bank and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to challenge the treaty suspension.

India justified its decision by arguing that terrorism and water-sharing cannot coexist, framing the suspension as a national security measure rather than outright aggression.

Pakistan’s Claims About Indian Aircraft Losses

During the aerial conflict, Pakistan asserted that it had shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale aircraft.

Pakistan’s Allegations:

• Destroyed Fighter Jets: Pakistan claimed to have downed three Rafale jets, one MiG-29, and one Su-30MKI using advanced missile technology.
• Financial Impact: India’s estimated total loss exceeded $956 million, with each Rafale valued at $288 million.
• French Intelligence Report: A French official allegedly confirmed that one Rafale was indeed lost in combat, marking the first combat casualty for the advanced fighter.
• Indian Response: India has neither confirmed nor denied Pakistan’s claims, though an Indian Air Force official acknowledged “losses are part of battle” without specific details.
• Debunking Attempts: India’s Press Information Bureau (PIB) dismissed some viral images of downed Rafale jets, labelling them fake or unrelated to the conflict.

If Pakistan’s claims are independently verified, this would mark a major embarrassment for India’s air defence system and could affect future military procurement decisions.

Ceasefire Agreement: Mediation and Post-Violence

Following several days of escalating hostilities, both nations agreed to a ceasefire, facilitated by the United States. The agreement involved:

• Total cessation of aerial and ground strikes.
• Resumption of diplomatic channels to discuss de-escalation.
• Potential revision of military strategies on both sides.

However, despite the temporary ceasefire, there have been continued violations, with reports of:

• Pakistan drones spotted over Srinagar, allegedly conducting reconnaissance.
• India is maintaining a high alert, warning of future retaliatory actions.

International Reactions and Future Outlook

The conflict has sparked reactions from global powers, with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the U.S., and the EU calling for calm and peaceful negotiations. Washington’s direct intervention played a key role in securing the ceasefire, while China emphasised regional stability.

Potential Future Scenarios

1. Further escalation: If ceasefire violations persist, military strikes could resume.
2. Diplomatic engagement: Both sides may resume peace talks under international mediation.
3. Economic measures: India’s continued water restrictions could pressure Pakistan into new diplomatic manoeuvres.

Conclusion

The latest India-Pakistan conflict underscores the deep-rooted tensions between the two adversaries. While the ceasefire has temporarily halted hostilities, ongoing disputes over terrorism, military aggression, and resource control may trigger future confrontations. Resolving these challenges requires strategic diplomacy, confidence-building measures, and mutual engagement to ensure long-term peace.